In-person attendance and universities are not going anywhere

Hot take: The going narrative is universities will be killed by AI, I say otherwise. When Radio came along, everyone said it was the death of the university classroom because you could tune in from home with your textbook and follow along. However, in-person attendance kept going.

When TV came along, everyone said in-person attendance was done because you could tune in and this time follow along both visually and with audio so you could see what the lecturer was writing, drawing, what was being projected, etc. In-person attendance kept going.

When the internet came alone, everyone said in-person attendance would die because unlike radio and TV that had fixed program times, the internet gave you maximum flexibility. You could take your classes at 2 a.m or 2 p.m. You didn't even need a physical textbook, you could download PDFs as well as high-res illustrations and photos, videos would be high definition, and you could even interact with other students in forums, etc. Many were the benefits. However, 20 years later, in-person attendance continues.

In all the above cases (from radio to the internet), many students did enroll in long-distance learning. So the people saying classroom attendance was a thing of the past were not completely wrong. The interesting thing is, course completion rates were terrible compared to in-person attendance. Lots of people enroll virtually, few people complete the virtual course when compared to the percentage that complete the in-person course.

AI is the latest doom for in-person attendance. The killer this time is supposedly 1:1 ratios. Each student gets their own personal teacher who understands how they learn, what pace they learn, how to contextualize examples, etc.

I predict the middle-layer of universities will go extinct. These are the universities that you go to for a degree that meets whatever baseline requirements for "higher education" you need. However, on one end, universities that have an exceptional focus on research and development will thrive. On the other, universities whose value proposition is network-based/social will also thrive. These are the universities that you go to for who they connect you to, not what they teach you. For example, universities that offer courses were in your final year, they connect you with the big name CEOs, venture capitalists, and other leaders in X/Y industry/sector (could be political connections for example depending on the course). And of course the universities teaching trades and other skills requiring in-person training (surgery, etc) will be fine.

The pure knowledge mills will die. But in-person attendance will continue just as it always has.