Solid push-back, I started thinking we are in a recession all the way back in 2024 and still think U.S. economy is in a recession. It's worthwhile to note the textbook definition; i.e. two or three quarters of negative G.D.P. I have my own criticism of that definition. For example since 2024 gold prices spiked and you could consider that negative G.D.P. if you were to denominate assets in an ounce of gold instead of U.S.D. Note that I do keep consumer staplers even though I think we are in a recession, looking back I should have been much more aggressive in my precious metal positions. It's just that you can't eat history. Also see Engel's law, I think higher inflation and a recessionary economy could be good for staples because household demand for food will stay stable.
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What's your highest conviction investment right now?
On the risk side, my highest-conviction position is a large-cap consumer staples name. By 'highest conviction' I mean the largest single position as a % of AUM. As a group, precious metals and miners would be highest conviction but that's not a single name.
Would think consumer staples would go down if we enter a recession. Does that mean you don't think a recession is coming?